THE FUTURE OF NIGERIA DECIDED TONIGHT

Midnight 4^th October 2009 marks the end of the amnesty window granted by the Nigerian government to militant and rebel groups in the Niger Delta. Many known militant leaders along with their boys have surrendered their weapons in exchange for stipends and rehabilitation back to the society from the government. The most notable militant group MEND is not left out of the ongoing drama.'General' Boyloaf a commander of MEND have since surrendered to the government. As the grace period before official clampdown on unrepentant militant is 24 hours away,another of the last known notable commander of the rebel group MEND,Ateke Tom will today surrender to the government before the window closes midnight. The irony is that MEND's spokesman Jomo Gbomo has maintained that the group will only negotiate with the government on its own terms. MEND proposed that a group of eminent Nigeria including the Noble laureate Wole Soyinka,have said accepted to negotiate with the Federal Government on their behalf to negotiate with government. The government vehemently refused to accept MEND position. They have re-iterated that it is not MEND that will determine for the Nigerian nation. The way I see it,the Federal government views any negotiation with MEND as a leverage against them. They do not want to accord recognition to the militants as was the case in the late sixty's when there were negotiation between separatist Biafra and the rest of Nigeria. The events of that period culminated into a devastating civil war. A more sophisticated and devastating crisis looms if critical decisions are not taken in the next few hours by the Federal government.

In the recent past the media was awash with insinuations that the Yardua government sought the assistance of the US in the up coming offensive against militants. The insinuation emerged from comments made by Madam Hillary,US Secretary of State during her visit when she toured certain African countries. Possibly the Americans can train our soldiers and make sure that we have all the necessary advanced war machines, such that was used to perpetuate the Iraq invasion and the ongoing Afghanistan war against the Taliban.. They can go further by rendering physical assistance in terms of sending out mercenaries,contractors and soldiers to assist the Nigeria military. The reason for this new found love for Nigeria will not be far for the main reason why America is in Iraq-the black gold. We should not be oblivious to the conditions of all the countries that have been invaded or offered assistance to flush out resistance. The facts remain that wars is far from finished in those places. Whether the cause is right or wrong,you can not push a man and tell him where and how to fall. We are a witness to the devastating effects of these conflicts. An invitation to the US to assist in the clampdown on the militants either in secret or open will spell disaster. The Niger Delta crisis is an offshoot of the fundamental flaw and problem of Nigeria and therefore requires simple local solutions. It remains a focal point of the Nigerian question? When are we going to get it right.? Is 49 years not enough for development? Can we preserve the unity of this country in this manner? Do we realize that a polarized nation like Nigeria will cease to exist in face of any national crisis? Are we going to fulfil the prediction that Nigeria will disintegrate in 2015 as predicted by the Americans? Is it not time that the government sit up and develop this nation to avoid a revolution that will not spare many? When will the government realize that tall the problems of this country are rooted in underdevelopment?

The Niger Delta struggle simply put, is an agitation by oil producing states for a better share of the revenue that is derived from their land. The oil revenue which contributes over 90% of GDP is a curse to them. They have been protest over the years but in in recent years it has developed into an organised resistance. The militants adopted kidnapping of expatriates and crippling of oil production capacity of the country as a strategy which has given the struggle a new and efficient dimension. They did not target the ordinary citizen. They directed all hostility to the government ensuring that they did not have enough to loot. What makes this struggle dynamic is that this is not a case of marginalization,It is a case of underdevelopment and neglect by the elite and upper class who have since independence taken the nation hostage. Scouring the newspaper headlines on daily basis,it depicts a nation in crisis. The young and old are groaning in abject poverty in mist of plenty. The government of the day is not working. We have a President that is preoccupied with his health. The whole country is plagued with lack of basic amenities for the survival of the citizens. Their is no social and physical security. The government which is meant to develop the nation in the collective interest of all citizens have been hijacked by a few who one way or the other found their way into the corridors of power. Low International rating is collaborated by the fact that all indices of measurement of the health of any country is in the negative. The citizens have been short-changed and government is a big business. The easiest way to wealth is to be in, be close or related to government. Corruption is endemic. We grope in darkness. Unemployment is as bad as that of Zimbabwe. Our Education system is in a state of near collapse. With all the attendant social ills experienced by the citizens , the militant groups needed not look far for sympathisers and ready recruits. The high rate of unemployment is evidenced in the high number of youths who are willing to risk becoming militants ,many that have taken to crime and thousands who roam the street in search of non-existent jobs.

It beats my imagination why every government in Nigeria since independence refuses to take the voice of its citizens and their interest in consideration in the governance of this country. The unity of this country has been sacrosanct so that those select few in government can continue to rob the masses. Their is a common consensus for the government to look into the various committee report set up by various government dating back to the 60's in finding a lasting solution to the agitation of the Niger Delta. The Ledum-Mitte report in one of its suggestion advised that a certain amount sold from crude oil($2) be set aside for the oil producing community. Such fund can be used to guarantee education to the university level as obtainable in Qatar,housing,health care,unemployment benefits and social security to every person born in an of an oil producing community. Such programs if implemented will eradicate poverty and stop militancy. Then the government will have to face the real job of developing this nation for the well being of its citizens in a peaceful atmosphere. They will have to be sincere in the governance by providing the basic amenities of power,roads and water. They will have to tackle unemployment and industrialize this country and give the citizens a breath of fresh air. We should stop seeing visions and start face the realities.Eminent Nigerians including Femi Felana has cautioned that the amnesty which expires today is not the answer to the Niger Delta question. Instead of tackling this problem from the root,they have started another show of deceit. What we have failed to realize is that we are on the verge of a sophisticated and dynamic conflict that spells doom and may eventually lead to the disintegration of this nation. As we await government resolve tomorrow the 5^th of October 2009,the masses should have the consolation that the anger of the militant will not be directed to them but they have to braze up to the looming realities of a war torn nation of which the multiplier effect will be undesirable.