“We cannot afford to fail” President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua.
"Our oil production has resumed in earnest with an increased output and contractors have all returned to site to continue with the installation and provision of oil infrastructure”
Presidential Economic Adviser, Tanimu Kurfi,
I still don't understand why Nigerian leaders want to be put under pressure before they take a good decision that will better the lot of Nigerians. For instance,the workers must go on strike before they get salary increase,there is no system put in place to review the salary structure from time to time to align it with the economic realities prevalent at that period. The militants groups of Nigeria's Niger Delta region in their struggle for greater share of the oil wealth abundant in their land realised that their comrades- late Adaka Boro and Ken Saro Wiwa died in the Niger Delta struggle because they agitated through a scholarly and peaceful manner. They soon found out that Nigerian leaders are inhuman in nature and are immune to scholarly agitation.
Thanks to the internet,container load of guns could be ordered in seconds and delivered as long as you have money. You could get buyers of stolen crude oil in seconds as long as you can deliver it. All this reality changed the face of the struggle giving the militants the leverage to operate smoothly. The indefatigable Jomo Gbomo Spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation for the Niger Delta(MEND),the umbrella group for all the “freedom fighters” emails threats to media houses and the next day oil installations are up in flames.
In a bid to draw international attention,they issued threats to the oil companies operating in the region to move out and adopted the kidnapping of expatriates to enforce it. Because the Western world values the lives of their citizens,the kidnapping model became a success and gave the struggle world wide attention. The militants garnered the support and sympathy of the Niger Deltans because the Federal Government had failed in addressing the problems of the region despite the region's contribution of over 80 per cent of our annual GDP since 1970 translating into over $600bn.With many jobless youths who have taken to crime high jacking the kidnapping model,the militant groups change tactics. It was a time to adopt Al Capone philosophy which states that “you can get a job done with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone”.” Is oil a blessing or a curse” a popular question in “petro-dollar” states needed not to be discussed in the pages of newspapers,magazines and conferences all over the world again. It was time to stop the flow of oil so that important question will be answered by Nigerian leaders. The militants began a systemic attack on the military deployed in the region and all oil installations with the aim of crippling the ability of the country to export crude oil. They achieved their aim with a high degree of success having seen our oil production capacity drop to about 1.2 million barrels from over 2 million barrels per day. The recession sent oil prices crashing and starved the Federal Government of funds.
Only then did Yar'Adua realize that that they have to pay attention to the needs of the Niger Delta Region after attempts to dislodge the militants by the military proved abortive .However, FG's attempt to dislodge the militants drew national and international condemnation because of its attendant civilian casualties. Moreover, the fact that the agitations of the militants were genuine made imperative that an alternative peaceful solution be sought immediately. Further military confrontation meant war and instability. Late Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Belewa warned over 40 years ago that if interests of the minorities where ignored by the three (3) major ethnic groups which dominated the Federal Government since 1960,the situation would evolve into what we have today. It was also in the interest of the US because about 10-15 percent of their crude oil needs came from Nigeria. The nations treasury was also suffering. FG set up the Niger Delta Technical committee (NTDC) otherwise known as the Ledum-Mitte Report.
With the situation deteriorating,the Federal Government offered unconditional amnesty, a recommendation of the Ledum-Mitte Committee Report . The Militant leaders “war generals” and their boys numbering about 15,000 accepted the proverbial olive branch while large caches of arms and ammunition that can trigger off conflicts in other African countries were turned in. Although MEND the major militant group that also acts an umbrella group for all the freedom fighters dismissed the amnesty as a 'charade'.The amnesty acceptance programme was well publicized with the leaders of the group flown in the presidential jet to Aso Rock for Presidential handshakes and reception with many undisclosed settlements and inducements of N65,000 for their boys till they are rehabilitated and reintegrated back into society. As for MEND they declared an indefinite cease-fire shortly after the amnesty window closed. Yar'Adua who was basking in the euphoria of the success of the amnesty programme summoned enough political courage to engage their leader Henry Okah who accepted the amnesty as a condition for his release from prison, when the militants threatened to resume attacks after the expiration of that cease-fire. They informed the Federal Government that the they have secured the consent of eminent and distinguished Nigerians referred to as the Aaron Team which includes a Nobel laureate Professor Wole Soyinka, former Chief of General Staff, Vice Admiral Okhai Mike Akhigbe (rtd), Maj.-Gen. Luke Kakadu Aprezi (rtd) and Prof. Sabella Ogbobode Abidde. MEND nominated Annkio Briggs to liaise on behalf of the group with the team. The team was to negotiate with the government on their behalf on demands which include the root causes of militancy and agitation in the Niger Delta. They also demanded the implementation of Niger Delta Technical Committee (NDTC) Report in order to achieve lasting peace and development of the region.
The wisdom,leadership approach and style of our past and present leaders has failed Nigeria for 49 years. There is a great urgency for a paradigm shift in the leadership of the nation. The handling of the post-amnesty period has proven that the Federal Government is either more concerned about guaranteed unfettered oil exploration rather than employing holistic approach to permanently solving the problems of the Niger Delta or cannot break away from the unilateral approach on national issues as previous governments are wont to. I expected the Federal Government to come to terms with the fact that democracy entails 'consensus building' and not unilateralism. The interest of all interest groups,FG inclusive,unless they have a different agenda in the Niger Delta converges on the need for the development of the neglected oil rich region. It is not an issue of secession as was the case of Biafra and refusal to meet any group is tantamount to instability. Every person involved is a Nigerian and deserves to be heard. If Yar'adua can meet with the MEND leader, Henry Okah,why not engage these men of integrity that have agreed to negotiate on behalf of MEND.
However,I expected that the FG to continue in the path of consensus building since it could muster the will to grant unconditional amnesty to all the militants. Instead Yar'Adua summoned the repentant militant leaders to Aso rock to unfold his post-amnesty agenda. Days later,the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved N200b for 44 projects to be executed by the Niger Delta Development Commission(NDDC) and the National College of Petroleum Studies, Kaduna, at the cost of N412,404,000 and also proposed 10 percent royalty bonuses for oil bearing communities. Bayelsa State organised a post amnesty summit in Kaduna outside the Niger Delta while some private interest group organised some other post-amnesty summit where the former Delta State governor Chief Ibori presented his Marshall Plan. In spirit of consensus building,the Federal Government ought to have convened a well planned all-inclusive summit immediately after October 4th [with semblance to late Chief Gani's proposed Sovereign National Conference(SNC) ] to be held in one of the oil spilled villages of the Niger Delta states which would last at least 1-2 weeks so to give enough room for extensive deliberation. This envisioned summit to be compulsorily declared open by Mr. President himself should have in attendance of ALL interest groups of Niger Delta region. Such interest groups in the Niger Delta as listed below but not limited to;
- Representatives of oil bearing communities,host communities of oil companies and oil installations scattered over the Delta;
- Representatives of all militants groups including that of MEND's Aaron team and the repentant ones;
- Representatives of Youth organisation,students,market women,farmers,fishermen
- Traditional rulers ,elders,clergies
- Past and present law makers,past and present governors,politicians,party representatives
- Representatives of relevant ministries,NDDC,Niger Delta Ministry,
- The leadership of the Senate and house of Representatives
- Existing and intending oil companies,
- NGOs,NBA,Labour Unions
- Foreign partners and nations that have successfully managed their oil wealth such as Qatar,Norway and Saudi Arabia
- Ohaneze Ndi Igbo,Arewa Peoples Congress(APC),Afenifere
- investors,banks,interested foreign Unions such as the EU;
At this point I will suggest some steps,projects or policies which I think can bring lasting peace to the Niger Delta and set the nation on the path to greatness. The Federal Government by abandoning the consensus approach also abandoned such noble means of bringing lasting peace and development in the region. Their haphazard approach and intent to employ repentant militants or soldiers to guard the oil installation is an invitation to disaster. We should learn a lesson from what is happening in Iraq,Pakistan,Afghanistan and all the countries where Islamic militants have taken their fight to. Despite the heavy security provided by the United States army,civilians and soldiers are killed in hundreds on daily basis. CNN and other foreign media can attest to that.
Firstly,It will be in the interest of the Niger Delta region if this administration resuscitate and sustain the initiative of the previous administration regarding development of oil and gas acreage granted to companies following the 2005,2006 and 2007 bid rounds in consideration for commitment to developing infrastructure. There should be an immediate review to ascertain if these projects are still commensurate with the contracts as agreed before. If there is need for more commitments in the interest of the region,the oil majors have no choice than to abide by it or stand the risk of losing the licences to other willing partners. We do not have to wait for the United States to bring about measures that would ensure that its oil companies operating in the Niger Delta improve the lot of the host communities. These companies should have known by now that it is impossible for them to operate smoothly if there is no peace in the region. So their cooperation is highly needed. As such the FG has to enforce development of these projects as an exigency. They don't have to wait until they commence exploration. They should carry out both pari passu. These infrastructural projects as compiled by Sweet Crude, a publication of Vanguard include;
- an LNG Plant,
- a Gas fired Power Plant & gas pipeline between Abuja & Kaduna
- IPP in Imo or Delta State
- PH Refinery
- 100MW IPP
- East-West Railway/180,000b/d Refinery/IPP 200MW
- Gas Gathering Plant/Investment in Lagos/Egbin IPP
- Investment in KPRO
- 150MW IPP in the Niger Delta.
The youths of the Niger Delta have to be the focus of development in other to prevent militancy permanently. This free education will empower every Niger Delta citizen and insulate them from poverty and the free education should be in our federal and state universities including polytechnics with full allowances paid. It should be extended to all those who are currently in the universities and those who have recently gained admission. Repentant militants who are illiterates should be encouraged to acquire high education as a lasting insurance against poverty while the government and the oil companies develop projects that will absorb these youths when the first graduates will be churned out in about 2-5 years time. As the proverb goes,the pen is mightier than the sword,the policy will be a lasting legacy. It is obtainable in other oil-producing nations who have managed their resources well and set up funds for such projects.
Thirdly,In this era of recession,governments all over the world have had to increase social spending. I have read in the media where our citizens and even the CBN are analysing and advocating the possibility of a Social Security Benefits Program in Nigeria. Part of this 5 percent fund should be used to commence payment of unemployment benefits using the Niger Delta States as a pilot scheme. It is being successfully carried out in over 10 different countries including Saudi Arabia. Thanks to all the trillion pumped into the world economy by Western economies,the recession is coming to an end and oil prices have hovered between $60-$70 with hope of increased demand as the economies normalize. Infact this model should be applied to the whole country. Every natural resources of any region should have a 10 percent royalty where half is for the community and the remaining half run into a fund that will be used to finance unemployment benefits and free education and allowances where it will not be enough to cater for the entire citizens the FG should make it up.
These are progressive suggestions that if considered and implemented will alleviate the suffering of the Niger Delta while the FG embarks on development projects that will open up the Niger Delta and create the Dubais,Abu Dhabis and Dohas of the Niger Delta. Government should also know that it cannot develop the Niger Delta in isolation from the rest of Nigeria but incentives like the free education and the pilot scheme social benefits scheme should be exclusive to them until it can be extended to the whole nation when the time is right. My major concern about the handling of the post-amnesty period is consensus-building where the Niger Deltans will really be responsible for arriving at a development plan in partnership with the Federal Government. I will add that unilateralism can build up apathy if any gesture of the FG is viewed negatively by repentant militant who have even protested in recent times of exclusion from the various meetings with repentant militants leaders. MEND is on the sidelines watching and unless they change their position on the honourable men of Aaron Team we could be heading for a show down meaning war.
Given the insinuation that the FG has beefed up the army on the ready to attack at the snap of the fingers and given the extent of weapons proliferation in the country where about three containers of arms have been seized at Apapa and Calabar ports. We don't know how many that have slipped through the customs and into the country from the creeks. War is no more desirable in the 21st century. We lost about three million Biafran citizens during the last civil war. Let us not fulfil the evil parliamentary joke that seeks to annihilate 20 million for the sake of 120 million others. We have all it takes to make this nation great. Mr President if this is the only achievement of your administration before the 2011 election. It will will surely be a giant leap in the direction of progress. But putting other factors together it will still be honourable for you to quit the 2011 elections after you must have set the stage rolling for anyone who will succeed.
I had concluded this critical reason awaiting publication only for leader of 'MEND' Henry Okah to grant Al Jazeera TV an explosive interview on Sunday 1st November 2009 confirming my fears about government's unilateralism attitude instead of consensus building in the handling the post amnesty period. Inside of Jomo Gbomo spokesman of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta people (MEND) issuing threats to oil companies in Nigeria Niger Delta Region and the Federal Government. The leader Henry Okah chose to do it himself. I am still at loss if that interview was conducted before the October 20 2009 meeting where President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua summoned up the enough political will to engage the leader who accepted the amnesty along with other militants as a condition for his release, in a close door meeting over renewed threats by MEND to resume attacks following the expiration of their ceasefire.
Responding to the questions Okah confirmed the MEND's initial position on the amnesty in which Jomo Gbomo described it as a 'charade' saying that only 500 out of the 15,000 repentant militants would be considered as genuine agitators for the Niger Delta while he dismissed the rest as criminals,rogue and kidnappers who saw the opportunity as an avenue get a presidential pardon. When asked to juxtapose his claims to the large cache of arms and ammunition that were said to have been recovered which was displayed,he referred the reporter to the Federal Government for the answer. Okah made it clear that he did not arm the militants as he was accused and that he did not have such funds. He reiterated that 'thousands and thousands' of freedom fighter are ready to take up arms against the FG if they don't start talking to the right people. But he did not mention who the right people are,but the Aaron Team quickly comes to mind. He also threatened the oil companies to pack out of the Niger Delta. Judging from MEND track record,their words are not mere words it is marched with decisive action.
I then concluded on my blog that “this has confirmed my fears that the Yar'Adua administration unilateral usual disposition of Nigeria leaders in handling our national affairs spells doom for us. Democracy is all about consensus building. Since every interest group in the region wants peace and development why not make the paradigm shift and start a multilateral approach by engaging everyone in an all inclusive summit'
Consternation is rife in the polity because of the interview Okah granted Al-Jazeera and the President has summoned the Army Chief and Police Chief about the threats. I believe that if Yar'Adua embraces multilateral approach to this lingering national issues Nigeria would be on its way to becoming a peaceful state where development will be our ultimate goal.
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