10 Critical Reasons Why President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua Should Resign Now

“The structures,functions,purposes,powers and duties of governments must serve the interest and satisfy the aspiration of the people” -Gani Fawehnmi

“I think it that it's very important for African leaderships to take responsibility and be held accountable. I think the people of Africa understand that” -Barack Obama

It is no more news that Nigerians are disillusioned and disappointed with President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's 30 months administration. The thought of articulating critical reasons in order to suggest resignation to the President has been on my mind since this administration marked its two (2) years anniversary on 29th May 2009.Those two years were devoid of any achievements except unfulfilled promises riddled with a sick,rudderless and confused leadership. The TELL magazine September edition cover story “Is Nigeria a failed State?”,reminded me once again of the need to call on Mr. President to resign given the decrepit state of the nation which is still on the decline. However,the timing was wrong as that period was the peak of the unconditional amnesty offered to the Niger Delta Militants by the President.

I deemed it fit to give the President an opportunity to redeem himself and present his government as a genuine leadership with altruistic agenda. A leadership that will look backward at the past so that it will not make the same mistakes,looking sideways at alternatives so you know your options, and use that vision to move the nation forward. Leadership is a quality Umaru Musa Yar'adua has failed to show in his 30 months in power. Meanwhile as the year was drawing to an end Nigeria's performance in global indices bench making politcal,economic,business and human capital climate was at its lowest since the advent of democracy in 1999, as the nation's ranking emerged from many organisations and groups. Nigeria's dismal performance was elicited by a decline in all the major indexes of 2009 in comparison to 2008 dashing all hopes of an improvement. A quick view of the various rankings can be found here.

Furthermore,I am more compelled more than ever to make this clarion call to our President because of many issues which include but not limited to the following;the House of Representatives have declared the Implementation of the 2009 budget a failure;renewed threats by Henry Okah Leader of Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) has shown that the unilateral handling of the post amnesty period which many like myself have always warned against portends real danger for the nation(see my warning here);clampdown on the media,deregulation and Mr President's health status.

Before now many Nigerians have called on the President to resign but the Presidency had dismissed them as politically motivated. In other not be misconstrued as political but to be seen as a genuine call from a concerned citizen, I have taken my time to chronicle my “critical reasons” in about 30 pages which I expect the President or his assistants to go through and respond to if they do not represent realities on ground. On the ground that they are true I would want President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua GCFR to consider two options. Firstly,he should resign in the interest of over 140 million citizens of this country or secondly, serve out his four (4) year tenure and willingly quit the 2011 elections. Let us put tribal sentiments aside and critically examine the points marshalled out herein which are easily verifiable and are made more glaring by realities on ground. In our polity, tribal sentiments takes precedence over national interest,therefore it may be difficult for the President to give way to unbiased,sound and correct reasoning. Resignation may be viewed by a section of the country as a betrayal of trust or a sell out. If Mr. President considers resignation as a sign of weakness,then the second option which is willingly withdrawing from the 2011 election becomes expedient.

Just as morality and Christianity plays a major role in United States (US) politics,I am not ignorant of the fact that the North needs to retain power till 2015 because we cannot run away from the fact that the principle of rotational presidency is critical to the continued unity of the nation unless we want to replicate Yugoslavia in Africa. I will deal with the issue of how the North can still retain the presidency in the absence of Yar'Adua in my conclusion of this clarion call but right now let me go straight to the in medias res- “The 10 Critical Reasons”.

NB: Check the Side Panel for November Archive to Read each of the Critical Reasons below

1. Sick President,sick nation
2. Antidemocratic Impulses
3. Level of Development
4. Post-Amnesty
5. The Evil Wind of Deregulation
6. Justice Uwais Report and Electoral Reforms
7. PDP and Internal Democracy
8. Vision 20:2020 Our “Pipe dream”?
9. Support of Impunity
10. Ostracising the International Community

Conclusion

Genuine leadership means setting the agenda. It means looking backward at the past so that you don't make the same mistakes,looking sideways at alternatives so the you know your options, and using that vision to move the nation forward. Leadership is a quality Umaru Musa Yar'adua has failed to show this in his 30 months in power. No part of our national life has improved since he came to power instead there is a decline. The nation has become as sick as him. We are in a limbo.

It is now imperative that the President should consider resignation in the best interest of the nation. If he chooses not to resign out of self pride,then he should start shopping for a capable PDP member to nominate for PDP in the 2011 elections. This is the best option as he is not in the best of health to be saddle with leadership of one of the most important countries in Africa. It has never occurred in the history of Nigeria. It is alien to African leaders. The irony of Africa is that African leaders prefer to die in power at the detriment of their citizens even when there are clear reasons why they should resign. Even if their stay in office is inimical to their nation's progress or at times portend danger such as war for their country,they continue to perpetuate themselves in office. This the bane of poverty,underdevelopment and backwardness on the African continent.

It is a decision of a life time and if the President places prominence on the success of the 'Nigerian Project' like the American Dream and yield to sound reasoning,he will emerge as Nigeria's first true leader in over 40 years. He will rescue Nigeria from the risk of becoming a failed state. So that the Vision 20:2020 will not be a vision to place Nigeria in the bottom 20 of the world in every sense. If he listens, many Nigerians will not fail to nominate him for the Mo Ibrahim prize for good governance but probably for good will towards Nigerians in the near future.

The President will attain a heroic status and he will join the class of rare men such as Madiba Nelson Mandela,George Washington and Jawaharlal who despite the pomp and privileges of power relinquished power in the the interest of their people. Nobody ever talks bad of General Abdulsalami Abubakar in the history of Nigerian leadership because he did the unprecedented by not allowing power to intoxicate him. Obasanjo would have been in the good books of Nigeria if not for the failed third term project that destroyed the little strides he achieved in eight (8) years. Against the backdrop that he failed,he now went ahead to impose a leader on Nigeria in other to protect himself after his tenure.

Yar'Adua decision will go beyond our borders. He will herald a new generation of African leaders whose commitment to lift their countries out of doldrums can only equal and possibly surpass the patriotic zeal of our 'volcanic nationalists' to borrow the words of the late sage Chief Awolowo of blessed memory, in their struggle against colonialism. Posterity and indeed the whole of Africa will be grateful to him for leading the way for other African leaders to follow. A dispensation where they place their country first before themselves. It will not only be applauded by West but it will send a strong signal to the rest of the world that Africa has finally woken up from its slumber to the realities of the 21^st century.

However he will not be the first President to have ever resigned or willingly withdraw from a future election in modern history of world governments. Willingly withdrawing from elections is rampant while resignation is pretty difficult but there comes a times in the life of a nation when we have to face the hard truths and take the most difficult decisions. The United States whose democracy is a beauty to behold have had their Presidents resign. One of which is the resignation of President Nixon because of the Watergate Scandal. The decrepit state of our nation is more than a hundred Watergate scandals put together as life has become unbearable and the nation is sitting atop a keg of gunpowder.

As I said in the introduction that just as morality and Christianity plays a major role in United States (US) politics,I am not ignorant of the fact that the North needs to retain power till 2015 because we cannot run away from the fact that the principle of rotational presidency is critical to the continued existence of the nation as a united country unless we want to become the Yugoslavia of Africa. In order for the North to retain power till 2015,Yar'Adua can nominate his wife. Amongst other qualities,Her Excellency has shown signs of being a politician who can hold her ground given the fact she is even more active than her husband even as Late Chief Gani noted that she was interfering much in national issues owing to health status of the President. She is very healthy and can take charge without hindrance as a result of poor health. I advocate this so that another power monger will not emerge from the north after Yar'Adua resignation and seeks to perpetuate himself or herself in power. If the first lady is nominated for as Presidential candidate of the PDP,if she wins, she will not be the first woman president in Africa. However,being nominated by the PDP is not a guarantee that she will win. From all indication anyone running against Yar'Adua or any PDP Presidential candidate in 2011, whether it is Her Excellency,will be from the North.

It happened in Argentina,although the serving president did so well by expanding the country economy by 50 percent,he shunned second tenor and his wife won the election. I will deal explicitly with why Her Excellency will be the best choice for PDP in the absence of Yar'Adua come 2015 in my next publication '2015 and Nigeria Unity'. The summary of it is as a woman it will be easier to get her to relinquish power because in 2015 it inevitable that any deviation from power rotating to the east might fulfil the US prediction that Nigeria may disintegrate then and we will become the Yugoslavia of Africa.

It is on this note that I make this patriotic call to President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua to resign or better still announce to Nigeria that he will abstain from the 2011 elections and start shopping for a successor.

Long live the Federal Republic of Nigeria

Nigeria must be Great.

Ostracising the International Community

10.Ostracising the International Community

I want to conclude this critical reasons why President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua must as a matter of urgency resign from a broader perspective of our non-existent foreign diplomacy policy. I read an interview President Barack Obama granted ALLAFRICA.COM's Charles Cobb,Jr.,Reed Kramer and Tami Hultman on his first visit to sub-Saharan Africa. I was reading the second answer before the last question and it was clear that neither Obama nor the journalists had mentioned Nigeria. I noticed that they systematically avoided it. I was infuriated. I said to myself that if only Obama knew that he had more supporters from Nigeria towards his campaign than his fatherland Kenya which he made mention of in his second answer. If only he knew that Nigerians who are wont to crying more than bereaved in the delirium of his campaign raised millions to send across the pacific towards the success of his election only for the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to dismiss the fund raising as fraud and returned the monies back to the contributors. Is he not aware of many pre- and post-election Obama conferences which were organised by many sympathetic groups in Nigeria?.

I almost flung the paper away but late continued just hear all he had to say on why he chose Ghana instead of other sub-Sahara African countries. Being the charismatic gentleman he is,he mentioned Lagos in the last answer of that Interview. (I imagined him in the their Americana style musing “ don't get angry dude I even know Eko! not just Nigeria. Blame your leaders for the US ignoring you guys,I still recognised that you ain't gonna talk about my papa's continent without talking about Nigeria”). Then I smiled at his wisdom. He tried to let us know that he knew us well and that the story of Africa cannot be complete without the mention of Nigeria.

Forget the Muammer Gadhafis who are only interested in condoning impunity and wishing to become the President of a United States of Africa in his dreams. He has refused to relinquish power in Libya with a track record of aligning with countries former President Bush will refer to as the 'Axis of Evil'. Nigeria is the most populous countries in Africa and one of the most important country in Africa with a potential of assuming full leadership of Africa just like the US. Right now our only significance lies in the fact that we are the highest contributor of peace keepers for United Nations.

We are ranked among 42^nd among 133 countries in market size according to Geneva-based World Economic Forum with potential to consume more if the economy improves. So even if politicians ignore us, investors seeking to make quick profits will not only on daily basis sort to come here,they earnestly pray for our stability and good governance to take over. We have the best crude oil in the world with little percentage of sulphur. Need I remind anyone that we among the top 10 in worldwide crude oil export and production.

Although late Chief Gani had to caution former President Obasanjo for his incessant foreign trips to canvass foreign investments while the country was in shambles. He did that to remind Baba that we needed to consolidate more on the home front before selling Nigeria to the world. Nigeria will never be a hard sell if the indexes are right. This is what many like this writer have been trying to let the Minister of Information,the 'Re-branding apostle' to recognize. All the energy and resources put in rebranding will be better channelled if she concentrated on educating Nigerians about governance and participation in same so that we could evolve a better society. The world needs us and Africa needs us more. Late Chief Gani did not mean that international diplomacy is not important neither did he underscore the importance of Nigeria in African and World politics. The Minister of Information in a press release stated that the election of Nigeria to the non-permanent seat of the United Nations is an endorsement by the international community that the 7-point Agenda is working. Then I ask,are we the only one chosen to seat along with US,Britain,China,France and Russia,the permanent members, as non-permanent members of the security council? There are about eight countries selected alongside Nigeria and our vote cannot even stop a key decision such as the veto power of the five permanent member. Moreover we have been seeking election to that seat long before now and the tenure is only for two (2) years.

Africa deserves a permanent seat at the United Nation if we must belong to this world to take charge of the destiny of the black man just as the blacks in America now feel equal to the white with emergence of Obama as president in the US. The world is waiting for Nigeria to come and occupy that exalted position because Africa deserves to belong to the Comity of nations as a key player. Asia and the Americas have one representative each,Europe dominates with France,UK and Eastern Europe represented by Russia,then where is Africa? Do we not make up a continent or probably the population and contribution of Africa does not warrant her a permanent seat among other continents? The centuries of colonialism is long over. Nigeria is in the best position to jostle and secure that seat for Africa. What will wake us from our "sleep walking" is the offer of this exalted permanent seat to Ghana because according to Obama they have become a model in Africa and also for the West to enjoy that delicious “crude oil soup” or to South Africa because of the country's stability and prosperity.

Sani Abacha was ostracised by the comity of nations,Yar'Adua has reversed the trend by ostracising the comity of nation. It was widely speculated the the President will not attend the UN Assembly held this year and he confirmed the fears of speculators by actually jetting out to Saudi Arabia instead of attending a meeting of about 150 world leaders. He went to attend to unfinished business such as the commissioning of a $7bn university while his country's universities were shut down due to lecturers strike. Yar'Adua chose to visit Saudi Arabia while world leaders gathered in New York to discuss world affairs ranging from Middle East Peace to Terrorism and Global Poverty. African leaders met with the President of the United States, Barack Obama, to discuss issues of concern to Africa and the US. In this era when the government blames its failure on recession,there was an opportunity for trade discussion with the US. Just as the present government is a monumental failure at the home front,it has scored below average on a scale of hundred when it comes to international politics and diplomacy.

Support of Impunity

9.Support of Impunity

It is now more clearer than ever that it is the disastrous policies of African leaders since the era colonialism that is the bane of Africa's woes. Africa is bedevilled with a long history of leadership crisis. We crowd the list of the worst countries on earth in every indexes of human development despite being the cradle of human civilization. The irony of it all is that Africa leaders want to perpetuate themselves in office while their countries are on constant decline in all aspect of human development. The recent death of Omar Bongo of Gabon who held on to power for 42 years,seven years short of our 49 years of independence confirms a situation where a man holds his country hostage. Now his son has taken over possibly for another 50 years. We were very close to this evil when former President Obasanjo told the international community that Nigerians wanted him for third term. The biggest lie of the century.

Another problem of Africa is the unending conflicts and wars caused by our leaders. This brings me to the issue of impunity in Africa. Since all African leaders are of the same kind it is not difficult to understand why they cannot speak their mind on critical issues that include genocide,war crimes and crime against humanity. It was Muammer Gadhafi who convened Africa leaders in Tripoli and rejected the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir for trial on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the troubled region. The UN says 300,000 people have died and 2.7 million fled their homes in the western region of Darfur. And one man is responsible and his life is deemed more precious than this scores of men,women and children who have lost their lives.

October 2009, Nigeria hosted a meeting of the African Union's (AU) Peace and Security Council on Darfur and the government of Sudan was invited with Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir to lead the delegation. With Rights groups and others urging the Nigerian government to arrest him if he turned up for the meeting coupled with threats of demonstration at the Abuja venues,our government whose support for impunity cannot be hidden resorted to cheap and dirty politics by possibly advising the Sudanese wanted criminal to avoid the meeting. Well, South Africa and Uganda abstained themselves from the pack of disgruntled wicked African leaders, by refusing to allow Al-Bashir into their countries because of its feared legal and political implications. That meeting was moved to Nigeria because we could tolerate the accused and Nigeria was even expecting to receive Al-Bashir in our airport.

We continue to envy South Africa,why won't this nation make progress and become the darling of the West. What stops Nigerian Government from clearly stating its position on Al-Bashir. If we support the ICC,it will go along way to send a strong massage to other leaders and intending ones who are busy committing acts of genocide and war crimes across Africa that enough is enough. Some will argue that we have about about 5million Nigerian living in Sudan and the diplomatic effect will be fatal. Do we realise that the crime against this man is the death of over 300,000 human beings? Why should over 5 million Nigerians be living in a war torn country,one of the poorest nations on earth that falls far below Nigeria in all areas of human endeavour? Are these 5 million Nigerians tourist or is that Nigerians love to live outside their country? Is not the failure of their government?

This goes a long way to tell us that if our President has his way he will commit more than Al-Bashir. This why the President could not openly condemn the Parliamentarian,Ibn N'Allah who joked about killing 20 million persons in the Niger Delta so that he and his kinsmen will continue to loot and plunder the wealth God put under the people of the Niger Delta.

Vision 20:2020 Our “Pipe dream”?

8. Vision 20:2020 Our “Pipe dream”?

A quick look into Nigeria's history will show clearly that in the area of development planning for instance, Nigeria is ahead of many developed and developing nations. Nigeria began planning for development 14 years before its independence. It had two plans before 1962 as it never lacked development initiatives in harnessing its resources. Right from 1962, there was the first National Development Plan of a six year period of 1962-1968. Its implementation was marred by the political crises of the 1960’s, and the Nigerian civil war. Three more national development plans covering five periods were crafted in the 1970’s.

The Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) took the nation’s planning process with its package of reforms in the 1980’s. By the 1990’s the era of National Rolling Plan began and by 1999, there were 10 National Rolling plans crafted, but mostly unimplemented. This is besides the famous General Sani Abacha Vision 2010, which drew prominent Nigerians into a full year thematic exercise, leading one of the best documents produced in an effort for the nation to attain greatness. The poor implementations of the plans were mostly attributed to corruption. But policy inconsistencies and implementation inconsistencies, policy reversals, policy terminations, lack of implementing capacities by political actors and lack of political will from many stakeholders were some of the reasons for the failures in many sectors. With the advent of democracy in 1999, the hope for attaining growth and development was rekindled with the introduction of a document entitled: Obasanjo Economic Policy 1999-2003.

The policy document was abandoned and replaced with the National Economic Empowerment Development Strategy (NEEDS) in 2004.But before then the idea of Vision 2020 has been creeping in the speech of former President Obasanjo, one year before he left office. It was actually envisioned by Prof Charles Chukwuma Soludo,the former Central Bank Governor . In that one year the former President mentioned Vision 2020 eighteen times in his public statements. By the time, he was out of office; there was nothing in place in terms of either a document, working paper or monograph about what it is or what it would envision for the country.

Yar'Adua came to power with his 7-point Agenda which is an elucidation of Nigerians problem. Pundits warned, that the 7-point Agenda is a mere statement of the problems of this country -even a one year old can sing about-and is never a way out of it. Even the puritan Central bank of Nigeria Governor,Sanusi Lamido Sanusi,who made mockery and nonsense of the This Day Banker of the Year 2009 Awards nominees,at his Senate confirmation advised Yar'Adua to trim down his 7-point Agenda which is an elucidation of Nigeria problems which is clear to anyone to at least 2 or 3 such that when we have accomplished those we can move to the others while building on achievement for the future. He was speaking the mind of Nigerians.

Then just like his predecessors,he set up committee of 1000 experts made up of Nigerian experts and foreign consultants who revised the ideas of Obasanjo's Vision 2020. The Vision 20:2020 blueprint which was recently approved by the Federal Executive Council(FEC) is receiving widespread public apathy. Nigerians are suffering from overdose of a plethora of visions and have not lacked visionary leaders in the past 40 years. I wonder if Yar'Adua and his team are of this generation or a futuristic one. Nigeria who are naturally good followers yearn for a President who will translate at least one of these noble goals of a nation into reality as is obtainable in small Ghana. I believe strong that our vision of becoming one of the G20 by year 2020 is a pipe dream. It can only be a reality if we pay attention to critical aspect of developments that can catapult a nation to greatness. Our only remedy towards getting close to this dream is a change of leadership because the present leadership do not understand the prerequisite for ascendancy into the group of big 20's. Joining the G20 should not even be our goal. This whole jamboree should have been shelved and our efforts aimed at strengthen our democracy through electoral reforms and conducting the best election in 2011 while we concentrate on critical sectors of power generation and education. I will vote for massive reconstruction of our existing over 30,000 kilometres of roads against building more and heavy investment in modern rail transportation system.

To be patriotic, I have carefully studied the Report of the Vision 2020 National Working Committee Group on on all sectors but I gave special attention to Education Sector. They have all done an excellent job. They have identified all the problems bedevilling the education sector and observed thus “for the nation to succeed in the Vision 20:2020,we must accept that education is the key to national development and unlocking the natural resources. It opens the minds of the citizens for participation in the national activities”.This is the sector that drives the whole economy. We have a President who doesn't understand that. We have been planning for 49 years without any achievement. Is not time we change tactics? Let us concentrate on each sector of the economy one after order than lumping everything together in the name of plans. Before nations embark on plans,there need to be certain driving factors which will drive the achievement of plans. I stand with Sanusi on the trimming of the 7 point agenda say down to education,power and agriculture and I say no to Vision 20:2020. We should stop paying lip service to corruption. If there is no corruption in Nigeria,even without a plan we would have power,quality education and good roads to drive an economy that will be the biggest in Africa before we aim for the sky.

In 2008, the United Nation University World Institute for Economic Research UNU-WIDER published a research paper on Globalization, Literacy Levels and Economic Development. It was discovered that countries such as India and China have been able to produce good requiring advanced technology because they invested heavily in the education of their citizens. Meanwhile,we have a situation where our government cannot even fund education properly and is even threaten to completely abandon the funding of the Universities in the name of autonomy. The teachers and lecturers are not remunerated well. The government considers grants for research & development as a burden. We cannot account for $40bn/annum we have been earning since 2005 year. If only government will spend only 20 percent of its total expenditure on giving sound education to Nigerian youths, industrious citizens of this nation will drive an economic revolution never know in human history..

I think by 2020 we would have discovered enough oil and have the equivalent demand to attain the Vision 2020 just like some Arab States who have more money and foreign workers compared to the population of their citizens. Then like Qatar the nation will give us free housing,free healthcare and free education. Wishful thinking caused by weak,sick and thoughtless leadership.

PDP and Internal Democracy

7.PDP and Internal Democracy.

The People Democratic Party (PDP) , Africa's largest party with President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua as its leader lacks internal democracy as we have witnessed in Anambra State in recent times. The recent Anambra State ward congress was a do-or-die affair fraught with fraud and crisis. Governor of Benue State, Gabriel Suswan, who was the chairman of the ward congress committee that conducted the ward congress , told Nigerians that the state chapter of PDP is in shambles and urged the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party to take immediate action to arrest the situation before the general elections in 2011.An avalanche of protests and petitions trailed the ward congress election organised by the Governor , even though a 50-page document containing names of winners was handed over to chairman of the Congress Appeal Committee Chairman, Ambassador Hassan Adamu.

The congress for the primary election of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate for Anambra State did not hold as it ran into murky waters as the Hon. Oladimeji Bankole-led primaries committee was put on hold pending the vacation of a court order filed by one Probity Adibe to stop the exercise. In order to beat the Independent National Electoral Commission's (INEC) deadline for submission of candidates names by parties,the party met in Abuja and selected Professor Chukwuma Soludo former CBN Governor as its candidate without a congress. The controversy trailing the undemocratic decision of the party by made other contestants to hurl accusations of bribery against Soludo and the eventual institution of court process which has forced INEC not to recognise Soludo as PDP candidate pending court decision. Although many are holding back their support for him because of the reforms that is exposing the extent of bad loan and lack of corporate governance in the banking industry only comparable to the endemic corruption that is prevalent in the society. This highlights the inability of the leader of the party the who is also the President of the country to instil internal democracy in his party. When a man preaches one thing and practises another,his followers become lawless. When he is insincere in the implementation of the Electoral reforms which he initiated. The President against the common notion of collective responsibility and in the spirit of presidential system of government refuses to take responsibility for the failures of his party to practise internal democracy. Now I wonder if they will blame Professor Maurice Iwuh INEC Chairman for not being able to conduct themselves at the party level. Am not trying exonerate Iwuh of his failures as INEC Chairman!

The multiplier effects is felt when inter party elections are held,the PDP employs same undemocratic practices. The Ekiti re-run election early this year witnessed violence in a large scale; a Senator was attacked with machete and hospitalised, thugs harassed journalists, poll observers were arrested and all night shooting by suspected thugs were all the kind of incidents that engulfed the elections. Even the deployment of 10,000 police personnel by the police high command from Abuja did not deter the perpetrators of this crime. The degree of the violence led to the postponement of election in Oye-Ekiti area of the state. Another reason was the pressure of the exercise on the INEC officials and the reported illness of Mrs Adebayo (The Resident Electoral commissioner). Therefore INEC had no choice but to postpone the re-run election in Oye-Ekiti.

PDP has boasted that they will rule Nigeria for next 50 years. This hope to achieve this through massive electoral fraud as the President is reluctant to fully implement the Justice Uwais Report and undemocratic cross-carpeting of sitting governors to their party is now the norm under the supervision of Yar'Adua. The President in his electoral reform bills sent to the National Assembly canvassed for an end to cross-carpeting because the constitution is not clear on it. Whilst these governors rode to power on the mandate of smaller parties only to abandon them in the middle of the tenure for selfish reasons back to PDP. Governor Ikedi Ohakim of Imo State was propped up to upset Senator Ararume. Now he has joined the League of other decampees like Governor Isa Yaguda and their followers to the PDP. The PDP is interested in destabilizing other parties. This anti-democratic trends by the PDP are being carried out under its leader the President.

Justice Uwais Report and Electoral Reforms

6.Justice Uwais Report and Electoral Reforms.

When United States President Obama chose to visit Ghana in his first to visit Sub-Saharan Africa, virtually everyone in Nigeria grew furious at Obama for 'ignoring' Nigeria the supposed Giant of Africa,foremost state of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the fact that US being the highest buyer of our crude oil makes them our major trading partner. The government cried foul that Obama has belittled us as noticed in their actions. But the No.1 citizen of the world cannot be perturbed by our disposition when the United States can contain China,threaten Russia in its front yard,draw hatred from the French people,continue to be a successful prodigal son of the United Kingdom while curbing the insanity of the leaders of Iran,North Korea,Venezuela, Cuba and the Wahhabi Islamic extremist. In a response to the first question posed to him by ALLAFRICA.COM's Charles Cobb,Jr.,Reed Kramer and Tami Hultman at the Blue Room of the White House just before his visit to Ghana as published in the Saturday Punch,July 4 2009 He answered equivocally:

ALLAFRICA.COM:How is it that you happened to pick Ghana as the first place to visit in sub-Saharan Africa?

OBAMA:Well, part of the reason,is because Ghana has now undergone a couple of successful elections in which power was transferred peacefully,even a very close election.

Well,to digress a little,why should we be angry as if we are not aware that our monopoly as sub-Saharan Africa's major supplier of crude oil to the US is been threatened by discovery of large deposit of crude oil by Ghana. Affiong L. Affiong of New African magazine put it humorously that Obama was going to enjoy ' Fufu with crude oil soup' at the Obama Inn in Accra when he visits. We cannot quench US appetite for the black Gold being the world's biggest economy and consumer despite the recession. Some people even went further to draw the conclusion that President Yar'Adua as a form of protest refused to attend the UN summit because the venue was in Obama's home country leaving many to wonder if did not know that the United Nation is not an American Institution but a world body. What a cheap and timid diplomacy!

Back to the subject matter. A brief history of Nigerian elections from 1993 till date shows that the elections of June 12, 1993 presidential election has been acclaimed till date as the freeest and fairest. When Sani Abacha took over power,he tried to orchestrates a transition programme in which he compelled the five political parties to adopt him as their consensus candidate in their respective national conventions. An Act of God terminated that process with the death of Abacha on June 9^th,1998. General Abdulsalami Abubakar took over and started another transition programme to terminate in the emergence of a civilian administration in 1999.He conducted local government elections on the December 5,1998.The conduct of the 1998 elections received commendations from local and international observers,the proceeding 1999,2003 and 2007 general elections were massively rigged. A progressive deterioration could be noticed from the conduct of the elections from 1998.The 1999 election,with its flaws, was much more preferable to the 2003 while that of 2007 is considered the worst of all the experimentations.

Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar'Adua gave Nigerians a ray of hope when he admitted that the 2007 elections that brought him to power was flawed(rigged).He then set out to change the norm by setting up the Justice Uwais Electoral Reform Committee to look into our obsolete electoral laws and arrive at recommendations on how Nigerian votes will truly count in future elections. This committee under the Chairmanship of Retired Justice Muhammed Uwais was made up of Nigeria best brains cutting across the Academia, Government, Professional Bodies, Judiciary, Civil Society Organisations, Media and Labour. The committee did a wonderful job and submitted its recommendations which was well applauded by many who believed that its full implementation is the panacea for credible elections in the 2011 elections. Barely one year from the 2011 elections,insincerity on the part the Yar'Adua administration to pursue a true electoral reform that will truly change the face of Nigerian election is rife in the polity. He filtered the report and still retained critical areas such as the powers of the executive to appoint the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)which automatically means that the independence of the commission is compromised and can be influenced by the President among other issues that the Federal Executive Councils (FEC) rejected. There has been disagreement between the National Assembly and the Executive over the bills sent to it highlighting the insincerity of the FEC. This will indeed lead to another electoral fiasco in 2011.

Well meaning Nigerians, the Academia, Professional Bodies, Judiciary, Civil Society Organisations, Media,Labour and students have been calling for a full implementation of the Justice Uwais report. The National Assembly has been advised to conduct referendum on the full implementation of the Uwais Report if the executive still insist on its present position. Obama in that interview I made reference to earlier stated that there is “a direct correlation between governance and prosperity. Countries that are governed well,that are stable,where the leadership recognizes that they are accountable to the people” is what democracy entails. It is only a government elected by public vote without fraud that will see itself as accountable to people. We have been witnesses to the fact that this government has failed Nigerians,as I write this article there is consternation about the deregulation policy despite its rejection, the government intends to kick-start November 1^st .The government cannot be held accountable and the economy continues to deteriorate. A President that close to three years out of a four year tenure still has no achievements to enter the electioneering year. It hopes to frustrate the electoral reform it initiated so that he can perpetuate himself in office even when the state of his health suggest otherwise. Why would Obama come here to dine and make mockery of the world's most beautiful democracy.

The Evil Wind of Deregulation

5.The Evil Wind of Deregulation

“We also told government team that its argument that the economic meltdown makes deregulation necessary is not in tandem with trends in the other parts of the world like the United States (US) and Europe where the meltdown has meant government stimulus package for the economy and the citizenry. As other forward looking countries have shown,this not a time to cut social spending;rather this is a time to increase social spending”

-Omar Abdulwaheed Nigerian Labour Congress(NLC )President

“I am not afraid of tomorrow,for I have seen yesterday and I love today”

-William White

Among the 140 million citizens of this country called Nigeria,how many can stand up with their heads high and affirm like William White “am not afraid of tomorrow,for I have seen yesterday and I love today”. As we all know,life in Nigeria today is horrible for the poor and downtrodden,even the rich are not spared.

On the 2^nd May 2009,President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, in a press conference informed Nigerians that there is a cartel within NNPC which has held the energy sector hostage and he vowed to fish out this “legion of extraordinary gentlemen” and deal with them. This cartel in NNPC ensures that despite the millions of dollars sunk into the refineries annually in the name of turnaround maintenance,the refineries fall short of their refining capacity failing to meet local demand. This situation, they know,will enable them to continue importation of petroleum products so that they can make huge profit associated with international trade. This cartel reminds me of the scintillating US Reality Series 'Prison Break' where a corporate Mafia lord, “the General” used countries as his experimental fields and the citizens as his experimental rodents. Funny enough Nigeria alongside Indonesia and Laos were mentioned by Agent Don Self the government FBI agent as one of the countries the General had tried his experiment on. The US government had to dislodge the US Chicago Mafia families who had a grip on virtually all segment and major businesses of the US economy,in the first half of the 20^th century. The Mafia families could fix price at their convenience and they sometimes brought the nation to a stand still with the their gangsterism and brutal mob war.

We have four refineries which cannot work due to inefficiency of government which is fraught with corruption,mismanagement and poor governance. Even the abundance of the basic raw material for the refineries cannot make the refineries work. We have pipelines running from the oil fields running straight to the refineries. What would have happened if we had to buy crude oil from the international market for these refineries? Probably,we will not have had any refineries at all just as Nigeria cannot boost of one car manufacturing plant. The ones that were established after independence have all closed shop. We now have to import all brand new Toyota/GM cars from South Africa. Is this not failure of government in the highest order? We prefer to export the crude oil to Western countries and then stupidly go and buy the refined fuel at international price given the high disparity between Naira and Dollar, because we have petro-dollars to waste. This is madness. Obama will call it the “disastrous polices” of Africa leaders. Instead of breaking the jinx of poor governance and corruption and bringing this refineries to full capacity, they chose to dangle the evil carrot of deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry in the face of helpless Nigerians who been at the mercy of successive retrogressive governments since 1960.

What is deregulation,It is a policy initiated by the United States Government by the Nixon administration after the post-war economic prosperity of the US that lasted till the introduction of Deregulation policy by 1974. That prosperity has been on upward movement ever since. Wikipedia defines deregulation as “ the removal or simplification of government rules and regulations that constrain the operation of market forces. Deregulation does not mean elimination of laws against fraud,but eliminating or reducing government control of how business is done thereby moving toward a more free market”. However at the time of implementing deregulation,the per capita income of the US was $4,445 which has a 2006 value of $16,031.Moreover the US being the champion of deregulation is a pacesetter and have achieved milestones in several aspect of human endeavour. Our per capita income is less than $400.Over 70 percent of our population live in abject poverty. This is a nation where successive governments have exhibited high level of poor implementations of the proposed plans attributing failure to corruption. Policy inconsistencies,implementation inconsistencies, policy reversals, policy terminations, lack of implementing capacities by political actors are the bane of underdevelopment since 1960 and lack of political will from the FG is the reasons for the failures in all sectors of the Nigeria economy.

The shallow comparison of the deregulation of the telecommunication sector to the deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry has shown that wickedness and lack of consideration for the poor has blurred the thinking faculty of our leaders. If there was a way to get into my TV,I would have jumped in to lynch the minister who was making this comparison. He needs to go back to kindergarten. Our government lacks common sense. These men don't queue up at fuel stations,taxpayers foot their bill, by the time they are leaving office,not only the huge salaries they have earned and all the contracts they given themselves,they loot the nation dry. Since the advent of GSM,we still have a telephone density of less than 70 million out of 140 million citizens. Moreover, every subscriber is not an active one and while the active ones can chose to control his or her usage of phone services. Deregulation is a policy that will affect the unborn,the lame,the beggar,the poor,every living soul in this country will feel the effect. It is not by choice, it by existing with the geographical space called Nigeria. One of the Telecom company says that it incurs N700 million per annum in fuelling it generators and this cost are transferred to the subscribers. With the epileptic power supply,you can not question that claims even if they put the cost at N5bn. The same scenario will surely repeat in the petroleum industry given the failure of government in in every aspect of regulation.

Even when Ghana had not discovered oil in large quantity the leaders understood that entrenching democracy and reducing poverty is the key to national development. The former President of Ghana,Kuffour ,once said,without disconcert,that he would not hesitate to spend huge chunks of money to subsidize requisite infrastructure and business-especially oil and electricity-to ensure the welfare comfort of Ghanaians. Hence,today,Ghana is running its third year of hitch free,uninterrupted electricity and the cost of oil is subsidized as a matter of government conscious policy to allieviate the energy needs of the citizens. This same Ghana which is not practising deregulation is a darling of the inventors of deregulation,the United States. Obama has described Ghana as “a model in Africa”. As Obama observed “ there is correlation between democracy and prosperity”,the country is on course and have bettered the lots of its citizens. Trust Nigerians,we will soon start hearing of Nigerian estates and even cities in Ghana because everyone is rushing to that country because you don't need visa to get in.

With the current recession the US Government has now started calling for greater regulation of the market. The United States is moving back towards greater government control and regulation of the private sector doling out outrageous sums of over $700bn for bailout and nationalization of failing companies. Then our government who has failed Nigeria for 50 years and this administration who have seen decline in every indices of political,economic and human development want to deregulate the downstream sector of the petroleum industry. Other petro-dollar countries such as Venezuela,Iran,Saudi Arabia,Qatar,UAE and Angola subsidize several needs of their citizens such as fuel and electricity. Until they attain a certain level of economic prosperity akin to that of the G20s,where such state is in favour of free-market economies they will now deregulate the economy and leave the fate of the citizens to the vagaries of greedy capitalist.

The government of Nigeria whose corruption,mismanagement and poor government despite earning over $600bn since 1970, has become a subject of scholarly debate,conferences and and study, many of which I encountered in the course of this write up,has vowed to inflict untold hardship and suffering on its citizens,instead of pursuing democracy and good governance which will in turn bring prosperity. I will not hesitate to believe that it is still this same cartel that is pushing for deregulation. Its seems Yar'Adua made a slip of the tongue when he mentioned the cartel so instead of staying put,to avert the wrought of Nigerians who will soon expose these evil men by themselves,they have changed tactics-deregulation. Why can't this government who contracted oil majors to drill our crude oil also partner with successful refineries in the world to bring the existing refineries back to full capacity? If fuel is refined in our refineries will government have to subsidize it? Won't the cost and logistics associated with importation be removed cutting down the cost of fuel? Now,embrace true federation so that states can also take charge of their own oil fields and own refineries? No way! If the FG's refineries are owned by Lagos Government,I bet them by now they will be producing at full capacity and there will be no need for deregulation. The issue will boil down to supplementing the output if it not enough to meet local demands or more refineries built as $4bn can comfortably set up a refinery.

The FG gives the excuse that government is not a good of manager of business. Okay,because of poor governance,corruption and mismanagement that have plagued the business of governing Nigeria since 1960,which was even the excuse the military gave for intervening in 1966, and it has not improved since independence,its high time we deregulate government so that government can become efficient. Yes, lets deregulate all unelected offices-MDAs for efficiency. Deregulation shows that Yar'Adua's leadership is rudderless. Many are saying that deregulation will eradicate scarcity of the commodity. That many investors will come and flood the market with products and crash the price. Nigerians indeed do not take cognizance of the fact that importation depends on the dollar and given our exchange rate we will always be at a disadvantage. Price of crude oil is on the increase and the western companies will sell the imported fuel given the price they buy our crude. They higher the price of crude, the higher imported products which is compounded by importation cost and other logistics. And we are not the only country that determines the cost of crude oil. So no matter the volume that is imported,there is a certain price that the importers will not go below so as not to run a loss. The cement industry is a typical example,despite opening up the sector for many investors to import the product, the price of cement hovers between N1500-N2000.

It is a failure of government and indeed shameful that the only commodity we have comparative advantage is going to become inaccessible to its citizens. In the Western countries and Asia economies,commodities that they have comparative advantage are cheap. In my 28 years of life in this country,prices have been sky-rocketing and the standard of living has been on the downward slide. Their is no price stability for more than one year. If Nigerian Government works,at this point of our national development we should have been exporting refined fuel and electricity to other African countries while we sale crude oil to the west. This will create jobs and earn this useless government extra revenue to squander. We will wait not for OPEC quota to increase our foreign exchange earnings. What Nigerian leaders don't understand is that there are certain aspects of the economy you do not deregulate so as to protect your citizens until you attain a certain level of economic development. Why didn't the US deregulate until 1974 after about 20+ years of prosperity? Have they not heard of protectionism?

When mediocre ministers deregulate I hope everyone will be able to fix his usage of the transportation system or even abstain from it and start trekking long distances or revert to Ojo Maduekwes bicycles. People will reduce the number of times they eat because food prices will be affected as prices will go up because it depends on the transportation system. Then all the companies who depend on generators to produce goods will also control their production so that they will not incur cost because of epileptic power supply or move to other countries and we now begin to import everything from abroad. Then we will have shortage of common goods such as biscuits and sweets. The Chinese are there to fill in the gap. Even the imported goods will incur extra cost when they land in Nigeria because trucks will lift them from Apapa to all over the country. Madness,absolute madness! People are suffering at N65 and you want to increase the cost of petrol with almost 100 percent and you call it a good policy. That 70 percent of Nigerians live below the poverty line is mere statistics to these people whose wisdom has failed us for 50 years. You have not improved their lot. Increase minimum wage to N52,500,it is then that they will start beaming with intelligence to define inflation for you and cling on recession. This shows that our government does not know the economic state of Nigeria. We have been in depression ever since and it is getting worse. Arrant nonsense!

I wonder if these government ministers know that powerful cartels are wont to 'price fixing' in developed free market economies. If they cannot curtail them now, is it when you don't regulate them that you can. Most Nigerians have corruption in their subconscious,while Nigerian businessmen who are know to be notorious and are acute capitalist will not fail to resort to price fixing so as to make maximum profit. If not for the arrival of the “Inventor of Sanusinomics” ,they would have collapsed Nigeria's financial system with corruption,poor credit administration and billions of bad loans. One man alone owed N108bn to several banks. If there is any aspect of life of this nation that the government has managed well,then we can buy their idea of this deregulation. Present and past leadership have failed us and everyone has lost fate only praying for deliverance. The government continues with policies that can increase prices and lead to national unrest. We continue to import policies without aligning them to the realities of our nation before implementation.

In the US,social spending item in the annual Federal budget is more than any other item in government expenditure. The United States still subsidizes cost of petroleum products for its citizens. Although it has transferred the subsidy from petroleum products to alternative sources of fuel to discourage the dependence on oil. It is still subsidy. They pay Social Security Benefits to every citizen who is in need of it so that they cacerfe2n be insulated from poverty when they retire,lose their jobs or belong to the low cadre of the society. A Labour leader at made this analysis at demonstration against the deregulation in Abuja. Going by figures released by government as one of its reasons to remove the subsidy,N650bn incurred as cost of deregulation translates to about N700m per day. We have 140million citizens. Then every citizen stands to gain about N5 per day as the only social spending the government offers its citizens. What the extremist proponents of deregulation tell us that the money used for subsidies can be plunged into other sectors of the economy for accelerated development. Then I ask them,can we account for other monies from the over $600bn earned from oil which we sunk into these sectors since 1970? So what is the guarantee that appropriating the funds meant for subsidy for other sectors will not follow the status quo?

France Model of socialist capitalism is being adopted by other countries in this economic recession. Instead of raising the standard of living of Nigeria and tackling poverty. Our ministers under the supervision of Yar'Adua prefer the outdated killer version of capitalism that other countries have abandoned in favour of capitalism with huge bailout which simply means part nationalization and increased government regulation of the private sector. They want to deregulate because they will give themselves the licences to become the importers and continue to amass wealth while the common man suffers.

Labour has sworn that there will be blood and the masses are solidly behind them. We want to copy the United State only in implementing unfounded polices without the requisite economic realities. Thank God for Obama who shunned us and sent Hillary to come and tell us to wake up from slumber. When the US implemented deregulation in the 1970s it had attained a high level of economic development. The standard of living of the citizens was in the right shape to cushion the effects. As the chief advocate of free market economies,they wanted to allow the natural laws of demand and supply to take prominence so as to fully understand the theories that have existed in their books; before destabilizing Soviet Union and enforcing democracy and free market economies on the world. The recession has jolted them to know that you cant practise free market economies in isolation. Karl Marx must be having a good time popping champagne in the great beyond.

Let us beacon on obstinate Yar'Adua to resign now before Nigeria collapses after swallowing his bitter pill of deregulation or better still let him start planning for a successor in 2011.

Post-Amnesty

“We cannot afford to fail” President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua.

"Our oil production has resumed in earnest with an increased output and contractors have all returned to site to continue with the installation and provision of oil infrastructure”
Presidential Economic Adviser, Tanimu Kurfi,

I still don't understand why Nigerian leaders want to be put under pressure before they take a good decision that will better the lot of Nigerians. For instance,the workers must go on strike before they get salary increase,there is no system put in place to review the salary structure from time to time to align it with the economic realities prevalent at that period. The militants groups of Nigeria's Niger Delta region in their struggle for greater share of the oil wealth abundant in their land realised that their comrades- late Adaka Boro and Ken Saro Wiwa died in the Niger Delta struggle because they agitated through a scholarly and peaceful manner. They soon found out that Nigerian leaders are inhuman in nature and are immune to scholarly agitation.

Thanks to the internet,container load of guns could be ordered in seconds and delivered as long as you have money. You could get buyers of stolen crude oil in seconds as long as you can deliver it. All this reality changed the face of the struggle giving the militants the leverage to operate smoothly. The indefatigable Jomo Gbomo Spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation for the Niger Delta(MEND),the umbrella group for all the “freedom fighters” emails threats to media houses and the next day oil installations are up in flames.

In a bid to draw international attention,they issued threats to the oil companies operating in the region to move out and adopted the kidnapping of expatriates to enforce it. Because the Western world values the lives of their citizens,the kidnapping model became a success and gave the struggle world wide attention. The militants garnered the support and sympathy of the Niger Deltans because the Federal Government had failed in addressing the problems of the region despite the region's contribution of over 80 per cent of our annual GDP since 1970 translating into over $600bn.With many jobless youths who have taken to crime high jacking the kidnapping model,the militant groups change tactics. It was a time to adopt Al Capone philosophy which states that “you can get a job done with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone”.” Is oil a blessing or a curse” a popular question in “petro-dollar” states needed not to be discussed in the pages of newspapers,magazines and conferences all over the world again. It was time to stop the flow of oil so that important question will be answered by Nigerian leaders. The militants began a systemic attack on the military deployed in the region and all oil installations with the aim of crippling the ability of the country to export crude oil. They achieved their aim with a high degree of success having seen our oil production capacity drop to about 1.2 million barrels from over 2 million barrels per day. The recession sent oil prices crashing and starved the Federal Government of funds.

Only then did Yar'Adua realize that that they have to pay attention to the needs of the Niger Delta Region after attempts to dislodge the militants by the military proved abortive .However, FG's attempt to dislodge the militants drew national and international condemnation because of its attendant civilian casualties. Moreover, the fact that the agitations of the militants were genuine made imperative that an alternative peaceful solution be sought immediately. Further military confrontation meant war and instability. Late Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Belewa warned over 40 years ago that if interests of the minorities where ignored by the three (3) major ethnic groups which dominated the Federal Government since 1960,the situation would evolve into what we have today. It was also in the interest of the US because about 10-15 percent of their crude oil needs came from Nigeria. The nations treasury was also suffering. FG set up the Niger Delta Technical committee (NTDC) otherwise known as the Ledum-Mitte Report.

With the situation deteriorating,the Federal Government offered unconditional amnesty, a recommendation of the Ledum-Mitte Committee Report . The Militant leaders “war generals” and their boys numbering about 15,000 accepted the proverbial olive branch while large caches of arms and ammunition that can trigger off conflicts in other African countries were turned in. Although MEND the major militant group that also acts an umbrella group for all the freedom fighters dismissed the amnesty as a 'charade'.The amnesty acceptance programme was well publicized with the leaders of the group flown in the presidential jet to Aso Rock for Presidential handshakes and reception with many undisclosed settlements and inducements of N65,000 for their boys till they are rehabilitated and reintegrated back into society. As for MEND they declared an indefinite cease-fire shortly after the amnesty window closed. Yar'Adua who was basking in the euphoria of the success of the amnesty programme summoned enough political courage to engage their leader Henry Okah who accepted the amnesty as a condition for his release from prison, when the militants threatened to resume attacks after the expiration of that cease-fire. They informed the Federal Government that the they have secured the consent of eminent and distinguished Nigerians referred to as the Aaron Team which includes a Nobel laureate Professor Wole Soyinka, former Chief of General Staff, Vice Admiral Okhai Mike Akhigbe (rtd), Maj.-Gen. Luke Kakadu Aprezi (rtd) and Prof. Sabella Ogbobode Abidde. MEND nominated Annkio Briggs to liaise on behalf of the group with the team. The team was to negotiate with the government on their behalf on demands which include the root causes of militancy and agitation in the Niger Delta. They also demanded the implementation of Niger Delta Technical Committee (NDTC) Report in order to achieve lasting peace and development of the region.

The wisdom,leadership approach and style of our past and present leaders has failed Nigeria for 49 years. There is a great urgency for a paradigm shift in the leadership of the nation. The handling of the post-amnesty period has proven that the Federal Government is either more concerned about guaranteed unfettered oil exploration rather than employing holistic approach to permanently solving the problems of the Niger Delta or cannot break away from the unilateral approach on national issues as previous governments are wont to. I expected the Federal Government to come to terms with the fact that democracy entails 'consensus building' and not unilateralism. The interest of all interest groups,FG inclusive,unless they have a different agenda in the Niger Delta converges on the need for the development of the neglected oil rich region. It is not an issue of secession as was the case of Biafra and refusal to meet any group is tantamount to instability. Every person involved is a Nigerian and deserves to be heard. If Yar'adua can meet with the MEND leader, Henry Okah,why not engage these men of integrity that have agreed to negotiate on behalf of MEND.

However,I expected that the FG to continue in the path of consensus building since it could muster the will to grant unconditional amnesty to all the militants. Instead Yar'Adua summoned the repentant militant leaders to Aso rock to unfold his post-amnesty agenda. Days later,the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved N200b for 44 projects to be executed by the Niger Delta Development Commission(NDDC) and the National College of Petroleum Studies, Kaduna, at the cost of N412,404,000 and also proposed 10 percent royalty bonuses for oil bearing communities. Bayelsa State organised a post amnesty summit in Kaduna outside the Niger Delta while some private interest group organised some other post-amnesty summit where the former Delta State governor Chief Ibori presented his Marshall Plan. In spirit of consensus building,the Federal Government ought to have convened a well planned all-inclusive summit immediately after October 4th [with semblance to late Chief Gani's proposed Sovereign National Conference(SNC) ] to be held in one of the oil spilled villages of the Niger Delta states which would last at least 1-2 weeks so to give enough room for extensive deliberation. This envisioned summit to be compulsorily declared open by Mr. President himself should have in attendance of ALL interest groups of Niger Delta region. Such interest groups in the Niger Delta as listed below but not limited to;

• Representatives of oil bearing communities,host communities of oil companies and oil installations scattered over the Delta;
• Representatives of all militants groups including that of MEND's Aaron team and the repentant ones;
• Representatives of Youth organisation,students,market women,farmers,fishermen
• Traditional rulers ,elders,clergies
• Past and present law makers,past and present governors,politicians,party representatives
• Representatives of relevant ministries,NDDC,Niger Delta Ministry,
• The leadership of the Senate and house of Representatives
• Existing and intending oil companies,
• NGOs,NBA,Labour Unions
• Foreign partners and nations that have successfully managed their oil wealth such as Qatar,Norway and Saudi Arabia
• Ohaneze Ndi Igbo,Arewa Peoples Congress(APC),Afenifere
• investors,banks,interested foreign Unions such as the EU;

Presentations will be made by all,while the FG unveils its agenda for the region that has generated over $600bn for Nigeria since 1970.All submission made will then be juxtaposed with the Agenda of the FG and the Ledum-Mitte Report whose members must be present to arrive at a consensus plan to develop the region.
At this point I will suggest some steps,projects or policies which I think can bring lasting peace to the Niger Delta and set the nation on the path to greatness. The Federal Government by abandoning the consensus approach also abandoned such noble means of bringing lasting peace and development in the region. Their haphazard approach and intent to employ repentant militants or soldiers to guard the oil installation is an invitation to disaster. We should learn a lesson from what is happening in Iraq,Pakistan,Afghanistan and all the countries where Islamic militants have taken their fight to. Despite the heavy security provided by the United States army,civilians and soldiers are killed in hundreds on daily basis. CNN and other foreign media can attest to that.
Firstly,It will be in the interest of the Niger Delta region if this administration resuscitate and sustain the initiative of the previous administration regarding development of oil and gas acreage granted to companies following the 2005,2006 and 2007 bid rounds in consideration for commitment to developing infrastructure. There should be an immediate review to ascertain if these projects are still commensurate with the contracts as agreed before. If there is need for more commitments in the interest of the region,the oil majors have no choice than to abide by it or stand the risk of losing the licences to other willing partners. We do not have to wait for the United States to bring about measures that would ensure that its oil companies operating in the Niger Delta improve the lot of the host communities. These companies should have known by now that it is impossible for them to operate smoothly if there is no peace in the region. So their cooperation is highly needed. As such the FG has to enforce development of these projects as an exigency. They don't have to wait until they commence exploration. They should carry out both pari passu. These infrastructural projects as compiled by Sweet Crude, a publication of Vanguard include;

• an LNG Plant,
• a Gas fired Power Plant & gas pipeline between Abuja & Kaduna
• IPP in Imo or Delta State
• PH Refinery
• 100MW IPP
• East-West Railway/180,000b/d Refinery/IPP 200MW
• Gas Gathering Plant/Investment in Lagos/Egbin IPP
• Investment in KPRO
• 150MW IPP in the Niger Delta.

These projects and others if pursued vigorously and completed in good time will provide jobs and better the lot of the Niger Deltans. They will compliment the efforts of the FG and state governments development agenda.Secondly,this region has earned Nigeria over $600bn in revenues since 1970 and as such deserve special attention. We currently operate 13 percent derivation for the region and FG is pushing a 10 percent royalty for the oil bearing communities. I would advocate that this extra 10 percent to be used in a different way. These extra 10 percent should not be committed into the hands of state governors who are part of the rot and decay as they cannot account for the huge funds they have been receiving over the years. Since 10 per cent of the royalty is meant for the the oil bearing communities, 5 percent should be held in a special interest yielding account by the Central Bank and used to prosecute a free education policy for every youth of the Niger Delta.

The youths of the Niger Delta have to be the focus of development in other to prevent militancy permanently. This free education will empower every Niger Delta citizen and insulate them from poverty and the free education should be in our federal and state universities including polytechnics with full allowances paid. It should be extended to all those who are currently in the universities and those who have recently gained admission. Repentant militants who are illiterates should be encouraged to acquire high education as a lasting insurance against poverty while the government and the oil companies develop projects that will absorb these youths when the first graduates will be churned out in about 2-5 years time. As the proverb goes,the pen is mightier than the sword,the policy will be a lasting legacy. It is obtainable in other oil-producing nations who have managed their resources well and set up funds for such projects.
Thirdly,In this era of recession,governments all over the world have had to increase social spending. I have read in the media where our citizens and even the CBN are analysing and advocating the possibility of a Social Security Benefits Program in Nigeria. Part of this 5 percent fund should be used to commence payment of unemployment benefits using the Niger Delta States as a pilot scheme. It is being successfully carried out in over 10 different countries including Saudi Arabia. Thanks to all the trillion pumped into the world economy by Western economies,the recession is coming to an end and oil prices have hovered between $60-$70 with hope of increased demand as the economies normalize. Infact this model should be applied to the whole country. Every natural resources of any region should have a 10 percent royalty where half is for the community and the remaining half run into a fund that will be used to finance unemployment benefits and free education and allowances where it will not be enough to cater for the entire citizens the FG should make it up.

These are progressive suggestions that if considered and implemented will alleviate the suffering of the Niger Delta while the FG embarks on development projects that will open up the Niger Delta and create the Dubais,Abu Dhabis and Dohas of the Niger Delta. Government should also know that it cannot develop the Niger Delta in isolation from the rest of Nigeria but incentives like the free education and the pilot scheme social benefits scheme should be exclusive to them until it can be extended to the whole nation when the time is right. My major concern about the handling of the post-amnesty period is consensus-building where the Niger Deltans will really be responsible for arriving at a development plan in partnership with the Federal Government. I will add that unilateralism can build up apathy if any gesture of the FG is viewed negatively by repentant militant who have even protested in recent times of exclusion from the various meetings with repentant militants leaders. MEND is on the sidelines watching and unless they change their position on the honourable men of Aaron Team we could be heading for a show down meaning war.

Given the insinuation that the FG has beefed up the army on the ready to attack at the snap of the fingers and given the extent of weapons proliferation in the country where about three containers of arms have been seized at Apapa and Calabar ports. We don't know how many that have slipped through the customs and into the country from the creeks. War is no more desirable in the 21st century. We lost about three million Biafran citizens during the last civil war. Let us not fulfil the evil parliamentary joke that seeks to annihilate 20 million for the sake of 120 million others. We have all it takes to make this nation great. Mr President if this is the only achievement of your administration before the 2011 election. It will will surely be a giant leap in the direction of progress. But putting other factors together it will still be honourable for you to quit the 2011 elections after you must have set the stage rolling for anyone who will succeed.

I had concluded this critical reason awaiting publication only for leader of 'MEND' Henry Okah to grant Al Jazeera TV an explosive interview on Sunday 1st November 2009 confirming my fears about government's unilateralism attitude instead of consensus building in the handling the post amnesty period. Inside of Jomo Gbomo spokesman of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta people (MEND) issuing threats to oil companies in Nigeria Niger Delta Region and the Federal Government. The leader Henry Okah chose to do it himself. I am still at loss if that interview was conducted before the October 20 2009 meeting where President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua summoned up the enough political will to engage the leader who accepted the amnesty along with other militants as a condition for his release, in a close door meeting over renewed threats by MEND to resume attacks following the expiration of their ceasefire.

Responding to the questions Okah confirmed the MEND's initial position on the amnesty in which Jomo Gbomo described it as a 'charade' saying that only 500 out of the 15,000 repentant militants would be considered as genuine agitators for the Niger Delta while he dismissed the rest as criminals,rogue and kidnappers who saw the opportunity as an avenue get a presidential pardon. When asked to juxtapose his claims to the large cache of arms and ammunition that were said to have been recovered which was displayed,he referred the reporter to the Federal Government for the answer. Okah made it clear that he did not arm the militants as he was accused and that he did not have such funds. He reiterated that 'thousands and thousands' of freedom fighter are ready to take up arms against the FG if they don't start talking to the right people. But he did not mention who the right people are,but the Aaron Team quickly comes to mind. He also threatened the oil companies to pack out of the Niger Delta. Judging from MEND track record,their words are not mere words it is marched with decisive action.

I then concluded on my blog that “this has confirmed my fears that the Yar'Adua administration unilateral usual disposition of Nigeria leaders in handling our national affairs spells doom for us. Democracy is all about consensus building. Since every interest group in the region wants peace and development why not make the paradigm shift and start a multilateral approach by engaging everyone in an all inclusive summit'

Consternation is rife in the polity because of the interview Okah granted Al-Jazeera and the President has summoned the Army Chief and Police Chief about the threats. I believe that if Yar'Adua embraces multilateral approach to this lingering national issues Nigeria would be on its way to becoming a peaceful state where development will be our ultimate goal.